Comparison of selected methods of prediction of wine exports and imports

Abstract

For prediction of future events, there exist a number of methods usable in managerial practice. Decision on which of them should be used in a particular situation depends not only on the amount and quality of input information, but also on a subjective managerial judgement. Paper performs a practical application and consequent comparison of results of two selected methods, which are statistical method and deductive method. Both methods were used for predicting wine exports and imports in (from) the Czech Republic. Prediction was done in 2003 and it related to the economic years 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2005/2006, and 2006/2007, within which it was compared with the real values of the given indicators.Within the deductive methods there were characterized the most important factors of external environment including the most important influence according to authors’ opinion, which was the integration of the Czech Republic into the EU from 1st May, 2004. On the contrary, the statistical method of time-series analysis did not regard the integration, which is comes out of its principle. Statistics only calculates based on data from the past, and cannot incorporate the influence of irregular future conditions, just as the EU integration. Because of this the prediction based on deductive method was more optimistic and more precise in terms of its difference from real development in the given field.

Keywords

• deductive method
• time-series analysis
• wine exports
• wine imports