Machine learning prediction of network dynamics with privacy protection

Abstract

Predicting network dynamics based on data, a problem with broad applications, has been studied extensively in the past, but most existing approaches assume that the complete set of historical data from the whole network is available. This requirement presents a great challenge in applications, especially for large, distributed networks in the real world, where data collection is accomplished by many clients in a parallel fashion. Often, each client only has the time series data from a partial set of nodes, and the client has access to only partial time stamps of the whole set of time series data and the partial structure of the network. Due to privacy concerns or license-related issues, the data collected by different clients cannot be shared. Accurately predicting the network dynamics while protecting the privacy of different parties is a critical problem in modern times. Here, we propose a solution based on federated graph neural networks (FGNNs) that enables the training of a global dynamic model for all parties without data sharing. We validate the working of our FGNN framework through two types of simulations to predict a variety of network dynamics (four discrete and three continuous dynamics). As a significant real-world application, we demonstrate successful prediction of state-wise influenza spreading in the USA. Our FGNN scheme represents a general framework to predict diverse network dynamics through collaborative fusing of the data from different parties without disclosing their privacy.