Analysis of Ukraine's economic growth sensitivity to the prices on global agricultural markets

Abstract

This article discusses the empirical testing of the real GDP growth rate and current account balance sensitivity in Ukraine to international prices for agricultural goods by using the vector autoregression models. It confirms the substantial dependence of the domestic economy on the price conjuncture on global agricultural markets. The analysis of statistical information on the agricultural goods export shows the deepening of its intermediate goods orientation. The main markets of agricultural goods exports are Emerging Markets and Developing Economies, including Asia, North Africa, and some European countries. It is shown that domestic agricultural exports are not diversified due to significant exports shares corresponding to one or two countries.

Keywords

• economic growth
• current account
• price conjuncture
• foreign agricultural markets
• vector autoregression models