Modeling the potential public health and economic impact of different COVID-19 booster dose vaccination strategies with an adapted vaccine in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Background Updating vaccines is essential for combatting emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants. This study assessed the public health and economic impact of a booster dose of an adapted vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK).Methods A Markov-decision tree model estimated the outcomes of vaccination strategies targeting various age and risk groups in the UK. Age-specific data derived from published sources were used. The model estimated case numbers, deaths, hospitalizations, medical costs, and societal costs. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore uncertainty.Results Vaccination targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 years and the high-risk population aged 12–64 years was estimated to avert 701,549 symptomatic cases, 5,599 deaths, 18,086 hospitalizations, 56,326 post-COVID condition cases, and 38,263 lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), translating into direct and societal cost savings of £112,174,054 and £542,758,682, respectively. The estimated economically justifiable price at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY was £43 and £61, respectively, from the payer perspective and £64 and £82, respectively, from the societal perspective. Expanding to additional age groups improved the public health impact.Conclusions Targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 years and those aged 12–64 years at high risk yields public health gains, but expansion to additional age groups provides additional gains.

Keywords

• Adapted vaccine
• booster vaccine
• COVID-19
• United Kingdom
• SARS-CoV-2