Factors influencing traveler use of transit before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused a significant decrease in travel. Whereas highway travel rebounded quickly, transit use has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels. This paper discusses the results from an internet survey conducted in May and June of 2022 of 6300 travelers that stated their use of transit before and during the pandemic, and their foreseeable use of transit after the pandemic is over. The survey questionnaire developed in this study focused in identifying factors associated with the stated change in transit use, including average stress level and fear of COVID-19. Approximately 41 % of respondents reduced their use of transit after the pandemic declaration in March 2020 and 45.5 % stated they were less willing to use transit in the future even after the pandemic is over. Respondents who stated a lower use of transit during the pandemic also had higher average stress levels and higher fear of COVID-19. A Random Forest Classification Model and a SHAP Value Plot were used to identify factors relevant to the stated reduced use of transit for travelers who were frequent riders before the pandemic. Household size and annual income, the comfort level of the person when faced with a crowded bus, the fear or risk of contracting COVID-19, along with age and gender characteristics, were among the key factors associated with the stated reduction in transit use. In addition to telecommuting and travel mode shifts caused by the pandemic, transit agencies must overcome the continued stresses and fears that the commuters have related to COVID-19 for ridership to return to pre-pandemic levels.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Travel behavior
• Transit ridership
• Stress level
• Pandemic fear