Investigation of the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought and water required to recover from drought over Ethiopian basins

Abstract

This study investigates drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological and streamflow required to recover from drought in four sub-basins: Genale, Tekeze, Awash, and Baro basins of Ethiopia. Due to limited observed streamflow data, the soil moisture accounting and routing (SMAR) model was used to extend the streamflow data for each sub-basin from 1985 to 2017. Drought characteristics in terms of duration, severity, and onset/offset of drought and propagation time at different time scales are investigated using run theory and Pearson correlation, respectively. Two Archimedean copulas (Clayton and Gumbel) are used to identify the joint return period between drought duration and severity and the amount of streamflow required to recover from hydrological drought for each sub-basin. Our results revealed that drought frequency has increased over most sub-basins over the last two decades. The propagation time from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is shorter over the Tekeze sub-basin (1–3 months); however, Genale and Awash sub-basin show 3- to 6-month propagation time. The more extended propagation time is seen over the Baro sub-basin (6–9 months). The required amount of water for drought recovery estimation shows a linear relationship between the duration of the drought and the amount required. HIGHLIGHTS The drought onset and offset months for hydrological and meteorological drought depend on local weather conditions.; The drought propagation analysis helps understand the impact of drought on the stream flows.; The onset of hydrological drought lags for a certain period from meteorological drought.; The amount of flow required for the stream to recover from prolonged drought exhibits a linear relationship with drought duration.;

Keywords

• copula
• drought
• ethiopia
• hydrological drought
• propagation time
• run theory