Presenting Integrated Waste Management Scenarios in Mashhad

Abstract

The increase in Solid waste has been generated as a result of rapid population growth and increasing urbanization. A one-dimensional waste management system has had negative environmental consequences as well as increased costs. The Integrated Solid Waste Management (ISWM) model is one of the most effective ways to reduce waste's economic and environmental costs. This futures research sought to identify the key indicators influencing the Integrated Solid Waste Management (ISWM) model in order to develop waste management scenarios for Mashhad. The study's statistical population included 25 experts (Mashhad Waste Management Organization (MAP)) and specialists (academic). Then, using MicMac, 10 indicators were identified as key drivers out of 23 effective indicators. Possible scenarios for urban waste management based on Integrated Solid Waste Management (ISWM) for Mashhad were identified by formulating 30 uncertainty hypotheses for the drivers using a cross impact matrix and ScenarioWizard. According to the findings, there were 59048 possible scenarios, with only 5 having high compatibility and being more likely to occur. The first and second scenarios, which received a total score of 167 and 149 as probable favorable scenarios, respectively, provided promising conditions for the future of waste management in Mashhad. The third, fourth, and fifth scenarios were identified as critical (unfavorable) scenarios, indicating unfavorable conditions for the future of waste management in Mashhad. Finally, the first scenario was identified as the most desirable scenario, while the fourth scenario was identified as the most critical (unfavorable) scenario for the advancement of waste management in Mashhad.

Keywords

• municipal waste
• integrated solid waste management
• scenario writing
• futurology
• mashhad metropolis