Stochastic Optimization for Security-Constrained Day-Ahead Operational Planning Under PV Production Uncertainties: Reduction Analysis of Operating Economic Costs and Carbon Emissions

Abstract

This paper presents a general operational planning framework for controllable generators, one day ahead, under uncertain re-newable energy generation. The effect of photovoltaic (PV) power generation uncertainty on operating decisions is examined by incorporating expected possible uncertainties into a two-stage unit commitment optimization. The planning objective consists in minimizing operating costs and/or equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Based on distributions of forecasting errors of the net demand, a LOLP-based risk assessment method is proposed to determine an appropriate amount of operating reserve (OR) for each time step of the next day. Then, in a first stage, a deterministic optimization within a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) method generates the unit commitment of controllable generators with the day-ahead PV and load demand prediction and the prescribed OR requirement. In a second stage, possible future forecasting uncertainties are considered. Hence, a stochastic operational planning is optimized in order to commit enough flexible generators to handle unexpected deviations from predic-tions. The proposed methodology is implemented for a local energy community. Results regarding the available operating reserve, operating costs and CO2 emissions are established and compared. About 15% of economic operating costs and environmental costs are saved, compared to a deterministic generation planning while ensuring the targeted security level.

Keywords

• Decision making
• generator scheduling
• probabilistic modeling
• renewable energy
• reserve allocation
• stochastic optimization