IAFSA-GM-based Chemical Industrial Park Photovoltaic Plants Power Prediction Model

Abstract

This paper takes the current domestic chemical industrial parks support and develop photovoltaic (PV) plants as a research background, studies the modeling mechanism of the GM (1,1) prediction model in grey system theory, it systematically analyzes the irrationality of the stipulation of GM (1,1) model for the background values and initial values during the process of modeling of chemical industrial park PV plants power prediction. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of GM (1,1) model of PV plants in the chemical industrial park, IAFSA is proposed and used to optimize the background values and initial values directly, and an improved GM (1,1) prediction model is constructed in combination with the rolling data updating mode. The example of PV plants based on chemical industrial park shows that the above-mentioned model is effective and complete, and can improve the prediction accuracy of the GM (1,1) model.