Predicting Poverty Using Geospatial Data in Thailand

Abstract

Poverty statistics are conventionally compiled using data from socioeconomic surveys. This study examines an alternative approach to estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial distribution of poverty in Thailand. In particular, the geospatial data examined in this study include the intensity of night-time light (NTL), land cover, vegetation index, land surface temperature, built-up areas, and points of interest. The study also compares the predictive performance of various econometric and machine-learning methods such as generalized least squares, neural network, random forest, and support-vector regression. Results suggest that the intensity of NTL and other variables that approximate population density are highly associated with the proportion of an area’s population that are living in poverty. The random forest technique yielded the highest level of prediction accuracy among the methods considered in this study, primarily due to its capability to fit complex association structures even with small-to-medium-sized datasets. This obtained result suggests the potential applications of using publicly accessible geospatial data and machine-learning methods for timely monitoring of the poverty distribution. Moving forward, additional studies are needed to improve the predictive power and investigate the temporal stability of the relationships observed.

Keywords

• poverty
• Thailand
• geospatial
• machine learning