Evaluating the climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration in eastern Iran using CMPI5

Abstract

In this study, the trend of climate changes during a future period from 2020 to 2039 has been evaluated using the data of the Fifth Climate Change Report under two emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for Neishabour plain, Iran. The 11 models of CESM, EC EARTH, HADGEM, MPI, NORESM, CANESM, CSIROM, GFDLCM2, GISS E2, IPSL and MIROC ESM have been used to evaluate changes in minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the GFDLCM2, MPI and IPSL models were more accurate in terms of precipitation and the GISS E2 and GFDLCM2 models were the suitable option for predicting the maximum and minimum temperatures and evapotranspiration. Considering the evaluated parameters, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration had approximately constant trends and were accompanied by a slight increase and decrease for the next two decades, but for the precipitation, large fluctuations were predicted for the next period. Moreover, in the study years for the four parameters in all simulated models, the RCP 8.5 scenario estimated a higher amount than the RCP 4.5 scenario. HIGHLIGHTS Difference in the process of estimating evapotranspiration and temperature in the future is incorporated.; Developing the evapotranspiration and temperature mechanisms for RCP 8.5 compared with RCP 4.5 has been evaluated on a time scale.; The range of variations and uncertainties of different prediction models were involved in the prediction of meteorological variables.;

Keywords

• climate change
• emission scenarios
• gcm model
• neishabour plain