Predictive factors of failure to control bleeding and 6-week mortality after variceal hemorrhage in liver cirrhosis – a tertiary referral center experience

Abstract

Introduction Mortality from variceal bleeding remains high despite the therapeutic progress in severe cirrhosis. Understanding the predictive factors of failure to control bleeding (FTB) and mortality will lead to better future therapies. Comorbidities are thought to be important prognostic factors for variceal bleeding. The aim of the study was to assess the factors associated with FTB and with 42-day mortality and to evaluate the influence of comorbidities on these patients’ prognosis. Material and methods We prospectively included in the study all consecutive patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding presenting to the emergency room and we followed them up over 6 weeks. CirCom score and Charlson index were used for the assessment of comorbidities. Results Of the 138 patients included in the study, 27 (19.5%) were considered to have FTB. Child C class (74.07% vs. 32.43%, p 4 (36% vs. 47.2%, p = 0.41). Conclusions The severity of cirrhosis is an important prognostic factor for FTB and 42-day mortality. Identifying the factors associated with early mortality may help selecting patients needing more than conventional therapy.

Keywords

• variceal bleeding
• cirrhosis
• failure to control bleeding
• mortality
• predictive factors