Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine

Abstract

Until 2030 the ulcer mortality will have a growing trend as estimated by the World Health Organization. Detection of countries and population groups with high risks for the ulcer mortality is possible using forecast method. The authors made a forecast of mortality rate from complicated ulcer disease in males and females and their age groups (15-24, 25-34, 35-54, 55-74, over 75, 15 - over 75) in our country. The study included data of the World Health Organization Database from 1991 to 2012. The work analyzed absolute all-Ukrainian numbers of persons of both genders died from the ulcer causes (К25-К27 coded by the 10th International Diseases Classification). The relative mortality per 100 000 of alive persons of the same age was calculated de novo. The analysis of distribution laws and their estimation presents a trend of growth of the relative mortality. A remarkable increase of deaths from the ulcer disease is observed in males and females of the age after 55 years old. After the age of 75 years this trend is more expressed.

Keywords

• forecast
• mortality
• ulcer disease
• population