Serbian Astronomical Journal (Jun 2009)
Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge For Copernicanism?
Abstract
We review Fermi's paradox (or the "Great Silence" problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already more than three quarters of century old puzzle -- and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin -- has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built in various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literatureon the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of variousclasses of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhatparadoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophichypotheses gives, on the balance, the strongest justification tooptimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.
