Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Gaby Sroczynski
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Martin Bicher
dwh GmbH, dwh Simulation Services, Neustiftgasse 57–59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
Claire Rippinger
dwh GmbH, dwh Simulation Services, Neustiftgasse 57–59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
Nikolai Mühlberger
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Júlia Santamaria
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Christoph Urach
dwh GmbH, dwh Simulation Services, Neustiftgasse 57–59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
Michael Schomaker
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Igor Stojkov
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Daniela Schmid
Division for Quantitative Methods in Public Health and Health Services Research, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
Günter Weiss
Department of Internal Medicine II, Medical University of Innsbruck, Anichstraße 35, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Ursula Wiedermann
Center of Pathophysiology, Infectiology & Immunology (OEL), Institute of Specific Prophylaxis and Tropical Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Kinderspitalgasse 15, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Monika Redlberger-Fritz
Center of Virology, Medical University of Vienna, Kinderspitalgasse 15, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Christiane Druml
UNESCO Chair on Bioethics, Medical University of Vienna, Waehringerstrasse 25, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Mirjam Kretzschmar
Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
Maria Paulke-Korinek
Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Stubenring 1, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Herwig Ostermann
Austrian National Public Health Institute/Gesundheit Österreich GmbH, Stubenring 6, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Caroline Czasch
Austrian National Public Health Institute/Gesundheit Österreich GmbH, Stubenring 6, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Gottfried Endel
Austrian Federation of Social Insurances, Kundmanngasse 21, 1030 Vienna, Austria
Wolfgang Bock
Department of Mathematics, TU Kaiserslautern, Gottlieb-Daimler-Straße 48, 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany
Nikolas Popper
dwh GmbH, dwh Simulation Services, Neustiftgasse 57–59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
Uwe Siebert
Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45–64 years), younger (15–44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available.
