Designing a food supply chain strategy during COVID-19 pandemic using an integrated Agent-Based Modelling and Robust Optimization

Abstract

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread for over a year and affected many aspects, including the food supply chain. One of the ways COVID-19 has impacted the food supply chain is the food production capacity reduction. It is necessary to develop the optimum food supply chain strategy by determining the optimum food hub location and food network to maintain food security which robust against disruptions and uncertainties. In this study, Robust Optimization (RO) is applied to handle the uncertainties. Nevertheless, the actual uncertain data might be hard to be collected or even unavailable at the moment. Therefore, an innovative framework is proposed to integrate RO with Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). ABM is used to simulate the upstream actor of the food supply chain and predict the uncertain food production capacity, which RO later handles. Particularly, this study focused on rice supply chain. The result shows that the framework is able to handle the uncertain rice supply chain problem, in which the actual uncertain data might be unavailable, and give the robust optimum food hub location and food network. The food hub location and food network are obtained by solving the Robust Counterpart (RC) model with respect to the uncertainty set obtained from the ABM simulation result.

Keywords

• Food supply chain
• COVID-19
• Robust Optimization
• Agent-Based Modelling
• Uncertainty
• Simulation