‘Plausible’ energy scenarios?! How users of scenarios assess uncertain futures

Abstract

Explorative energy scenarios do not present the most probable developments but provide a set of plausible pathways in order to highlight the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making contexts. Although plausibility is widely assumed as effectiveness criterion for scenario work, little is known about how the plausibility of a set of scenarios is perceived by users. This paper discusses conceptions from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics to identify key factors affecting the perceived plausibility of scenarios. A conceptual model is proposed that links users' perceptions to the narrative storytelling and internal structure of the scenario, the perceived credibility of scenario sources and methods and users’ worldviews and cognitive styles. The model outlines why energy scenarios are discarded or seriously considered by a wider audience that was not involved in the scenario construction process. The paper explains how perceived plausibility constitutes a necessary but not sufficient condition for scenario usage and provides practical implications for scenario producers.

Keywords

• Energy scenarios
• Scenario methods
• Scenario assessment
• Scenario usage
• Plausibility
• Probability