The effect of economic development incentives and clawback provisions on job creation: A pre-registered evaluation of Maryland and Virginia programs

Abstract

Economic development incentives target individual firms for financial or non-financial benefits to induce capital investment or job creation. Previous studies have found a mixed impact of incentives on economic development, with numerous studies pointing to no impact of incentives on economic growth or job creation. I add to this literature by analyzing two different state economic development incentive programs using the same methods and time-period, allowing for direct comparability. My analysis is the first, “pre-registered” study of incentives, where all of the data collection, design and methodological decisions were made and documented prior to receiving the data. Using a pre-registered matching method design, I estimate the impact of Maryland and Virginia’s flagship economic development incentives on job creation. My main finding is that these incentive programs had essentially zero impact on job creation when they are compared to a control group of similar firms. My secondary results find that even after removing firms from the analysis that were subject to “clawbacks” based on non-compliance with the incentive agreement do not improve the overall performance of the program.