Predictive models of efficacy and public health impact of vaccination with rotavirus vaccine in Ukraine

Abstract

There were presented the results of the computational and theoretical studies related to assessing of an efficacy and public health impact of a vaccination with a rotavirus vaccine in Ukraine. The required indicators are: the genotype-specific vaccine efficacy, number of the severe illness preventions, hospitalizations, outpatient visits and deaths. The results were obtained in a form of tree of decisions based on Makrov model by using mathematical model with computer simulation. The results showed the significant positive effect of the vaccination compared to no vaccination, in case of high level of vaccine coverage in Ukraine.

Keywords

• rotavirus
• rotavirus vaccine
• vaccination
• decision tree
• Markov model