Global Epidemiology (Dec 2024)
Challenging unverified assumptions in causal claims: Do gas stoves increase risk of pediatric asthma?
Abstract
The use of unverified models for risk estimates and policy recommendations can be highly misleading, as their predictions may not reflect real-world health impacts. For example, a recent article states that NO2 from gas stoves “likely causes ∼50,000 cases of current pediatric asthma from long-term NO2 exposure alone” annually in the United States. This explicitly causal claim, which is contrary to several methodology and review articles published in this journal, among others, reflects both (a) An unverified modeling assumption that pediatric asthma burden is approximately proportional to NO2; and (b) An unverified causal assumption that the assumed proportionality between exposure and response is causal. The article is devoid of any causal analysis showing that these assumptions are likely to be true. It does not show that reducing NO2 exposure from gas stoves would reduce pediatric asthma risk. Its key references report no significant associations – let alone causation – between NO2 and pediatric asthma. Thus, the underlying data suggests that the number of pediatric asthma cases caused by gas stoves in the United States is indistinguishable from zero. This highlights the need to rigorously validate modeling assumptions and causal claims in public health risk assessments to ensure scientifically sound foundations for policy decisions.
