Macroinvertebrates on the front lines: projected community response to temperature and precipitation changes in Mediterranean streams

Abstract

As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns change, approaches are needed for early detection of the effects on ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate data collected from 81 sites with multiple habitat kick sampling were compiled for this study. We used a binary logistic regression model to predict the probability of local extinction or range expansion of aquatic macroinvertebrates with changes in temperature and precipitation in watersheds of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain. Aquatic insect families from the following orders were found to be sensitive to an increase in average spring temperatures: Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Megaloptera, Trichoptera, Coleoptera and Diptera. Taxa in Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera, Hemiptera and Coleoptera showed negative relationships with minimum (winter) temperature, maximum spring temperature and/or precipitation. One mayfly, Caenis, exhibited a positive relationship with minimum temperature. These results indicate that these aquatic communities are expected to change significantly in the short-term, with the potential to alter stream ecosystem functioning. Mediterranean ecosystems are considered biodiversity hotspots, and biotic communities in freshwater habitats in these areas may be particularly vulnerable to projected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation. The ability of taxa to withstand these changes will depend on resistance, resilience and dispersal capabilities of the aquatic macroinvertebrates as well as available habitat.

Keywords

• Aquatic macroinvertebrate
• temperature
• precipitation
• streams
• Mediterranean region