Renewable Scenario Generation Based on the Hybrid Genetic Algorithm with Variable Chromosome Length

Abstract

Determining the operation scenarios of renewable energies is important for power system dispatching. This paper proposes a renewable scenario generation method based on the hybrid genetic algorithm with variable chromosome length (HGAVCL). The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to divide the original data into linear and fluctuant parts according to the length of time scales. The HGAVCL is designed to optimally divide the linear part into different time sections. Additionally, each time section is described by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. With the consideration of temporal correlation, the Copula joint probability density function is established to model the fluctuant part. Based on the attained ARIMA model and joint probability density function, a number of data are generated by the Monte Carlo method, and the time autocorrelation, average offset rate, and climbing similarity indexes are established to assess the data quality of generated scenarios. A case study is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The calculated time autocorrelation, average offset rate, and climbing similarity are 0.0515, 0.0396, and 0.9035, respectively, which shows the superior performance of the proposed approach.

Keywords

• ARIMA model
• copula function
• genetic algorithm
• renewable energy
• scenario generation