Take Your Best Shot: Which SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Should I Get?

Abstract

Background. Three vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) have now received emergency use authorization by the US Food and Drug Administration. Patients may have the opportunity to make a choice about which vaccine they prefer to receive. Vaccine hesitancy is a hurdle to the development of widespread immunity, with many patients struggling to decide whether to get vaccinated at all. Objective. Develop a decision model exploring the question, “Should I get vaccinated with mRNA or adenovirus vector vaccine (AVV) if either is available now?” Design. Markov state transition model with lifetime time horizon. Data Sources. MEDLINE searches, bibliographies from relevant English-language articles. Setting. United States, ambulatory clinical setting. Participants. Previously uninfected, nonimmunized adults in the United States. Interventions. 1) Do Not Vaccinate, 2) Vaccination with mRNA Vaccine, 3) Vaccination with Adenovirus Vector Vaccine. Main Measures. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Key Results. Base case—for a healthy 65-year-old patient, both vaccines yield virtually equivalent results (difference of 0.0028 QALYs). In sensitivity analyses, receiving the AVV is preferred if the short-term morbidity associated with each vaccine dose exceeds 1.8 days. Both vaccines afford an even greater benefit compared with Do Not Vaccinate if the pandemic is in a surge phase with a rising incidence of infection or if the current 7-day incidence is greater than the base case estimate of 105 cases per 100,000. Conclusions. Preferred vaccination strategies change under differing assumptions, but differences in outcomes are negligible. The best advice for patients is to get vaccinated against COVID-19 disease with whatever vaccine is available first. Providing mRNA vaccine to the remaining eligible US population would result in an aggregate gain of 3.92 million QALYs. Highlights Question: Now that three vaccines have received emergency use authorization to prevent SARS-CoV-2, should I get vaccinated with either the mRNA (Moderna or Pfizer) or the adenovirus vector (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson) vaccine if either one is available now? Findings: In our base case, for a healthy 65-year-old patient, an mRNA vaccine is very slightly preferred over the adenovirus vector vaccine by 0.0028 QALYs, or slightly more than 1 day. However, both vaccines afford a substantial benefit compared with not getting vaccinated. Meaning: In conclusion, although different vaccine strategies are preferred under different modeling assumptions, in the final analysis the differences in outcomes are extremely small. Our best advice is to simply get vaccinated with whatever is available the soonest!