Problemi Ekonomiki (Nov 2022)
The Scenarios for Forecasting the Adequacy of the Development of Generating Capacities, the Mechanisms for Supporting the Development of the Electric Energy Industry of the European Union
Abstract
A generalized interpretation of the adequacy of generating capacities is presented. Methods for assessing the adequacy of generating capacities correspondent to the EU regulations and standards are examined. The peculiarities of forecasting the adequacy of the development of generating capacities at different time intervals (long-term, medium-term and short-term) according to the methodological approach of ENTSO-E are covered. The main scenarios for forecasting the adequacy of the development of generating capacities at medium-term and long-term time intervals are provided. Attention is focused on the key stages of building the market-based stochastic models for forecasting the supply and demand of electric energy in accordance with the methodological approach of ENTSO-E to predict the adequacy of the development of generating capacities: forecasting the hourly load in the electric energy system; determination of probabilistic characteristics of power generation based on the climate database; assessment of the flexibility of the electric power system; forecasting the development of transboundary flows of electric energy; evaluation of criteria for the adequacy of the development of generating capacities. The methodological aspects of forecasting and assessing the adequacy of the development of generating capacities for each of the stages are presented. To support the adequate development of the European electric energy industry, the relevant market supporting mechanisms are introduced, namely the capacity market and the renewable electric energy market. The main types of mechanisms for the functioning of the capacity market in the EU are provided. Schemes of government support for the development of renewable electric energy in the EU are considered.
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