An Influence of Changes of Heliogeophysical Conditions on Influenza Epidemics

Abstract

For purposes of studying of possible influence of the solar and geomagnetic activity on influenza diseases and epidemic, the data covering the time period of 1976-2004 is studied for the Absheron Peninsula area including the capital city Baku (the Republic of Azerbaijan) with several millions of inhabitants. Period, duration, intensity and seasonal behavior of the influenza epidemic, tendency of its beginning within a solar cycle are determined. Investigations reveal that influenza epidemic usually begins 2-3 years before and / or 2-3 years after the 11-years sunspot cycle maximum. We suppose that solar activity affects the influenza epidemic mainly through geomagnetic activity (magnetic storms). The comparative analysis of years of high solar activity and both periods of originating of epidemics and pandemics on the base of antigenic formulas of influenza viruses described with the help of characters of structure of a virus (hemagglutinin and neuraminidase) has revealed definite regularity in the circulation of influenza infections. Forecast method for prophylactic measures is developed for considered region. Obtained results are interpreted and compared with similar ones.