The Anticipated Use of Public Transport in the Post-Pandemic Era: Insights from an Academic Community in Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract

This paper investigates how the travel behavior relating to Public Transport (PT) changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and which are the expectations about the extent of PT use post-pandemic. A revealed preferences questionnaire survey was distributed within an academic community in the city of Thessaloniki, Greece. To understand the factors potentially determining the future PT use, hierarchical ordered probit and bivariate ordered probit models were estimated. Results showed that the frequent PT users reduced by almost 75% during the pandemic. More than 29% of the local academic community members are reluctant to resume PT use at pre-pandemic levels. Non-captive users, teleworkers and those being unsatisfied with cleanliness and safety are less willing to travelling by PT post-pandemic. Female and under-stress passengers were found to particularly appreciate the use of facemasks and the increased service frequencies as post-pandemic policy measures. The study findings can inform the recovery strategies of transport authorities in order to retain the PT ridership at levels that will not threat the long-term viability of service provision. Future research may complement these findings by examining other population segments, such as the commuters and the elderly, under more advanced modelling techniques to account for additional unobserved behavioral patterns.

Keywords

• public transport demand
• policy measures
• post-pandemic mobility
• COVID-19
• ordered probit
• bivariate probit