The Pairing of Rapid Intensification Events and Eyewall Replacement Cycles in Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin from 2015 to 2020

Abstract

Rapid intensification (RI) and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) frequently occur in intense tropical cyclones (TCs), often causing rapid, significant changes in intensity and structure. In some TCs, RI and ERCs can occur concurrently or within a short period of one another. This study investigates whether there is a link between RI and ERCs by conducting a statistical analysis of TCs that occurred in the North Atlantic basin from 2015 to 2020. The HURDAT2 dataset was used to detect RI events, while the Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery archive by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies was used to detect ERC events. Three sets of data were constructed from this analysis: TCs with paired RI/ERC events that occurred within 24 h of each other, TCs with RI only, and TCs with ERCs only. Statistics selected for analysis within the constructed datasets were mean duration of phenomena, mean rate of intensification, and mean peak intensity. We performed t-tests to determine the statistical significance of results. The results of this study show that TCs with these paired RI/ERC events often intensified at a faster rate, intensified for longer, and ended up stronger than TCs that only experienced RI or ERCs in isolation.

Keywords

• tropical cyclones
• rapid intensification
• eyewall replacement cycles
• North Atlantic Basin
• statistical mean
• standard deviation