Wind Turbine Bearing Temperature Forecasting Using a New Data-Driven Ensemble Approach

Abstract

The bearing temperature forecasting provide can provide early detection of the gearbox operating status of wind turbines. To achieve high precision and reliable performance in bearing temperature forecasting, a novel hybrid model is proposed in the paper, which is composed of three phases. Firstly, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method is employed to decompose raw bearing temperature data into several sub-series with different frequencies. Then, the SAE-GMDH method is utilized as the predictor in the subseries. The stacked autoencoder (SAE) is for the low-latitude features of raw data, while the group method of data handling (GMDH) is applied for the sub-series forecasting. Finally, the imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) optimizes the weights for subseries and combines them to achieve the final forecasting results. By analytical investigation and comparing the final prediction results in all experiments, it can be summarized that (1) the proposed model has achieved excellent prediction outcome by integrating optimization algorithms with predictors; (2) the experiment results proved that the proposed model outperformed other selective models, with higher accuracies in all datasets, including three state-of-the-art models.

Keywords

• bearing temperature forecasting
• hybrid model
• data decomposition
• optimization algorithm