Decarbonization Prospects in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Abstract

The paper discusses existing trends and prospects for decarbonization in the Commonwealth of Independent States (the CIS), an international organization that regroups Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The CIS occupies a significant share of Eurasia, representing a large share of global energy consumption and production with a corresponding carbon footprint. These countries and their decarbonization prospects are rarely discussed in the English-language scientific literature. This paper fills in this gap by offering a comprehensive analysis based on statistical data, policy documents, and scenario-based future projections. The results underline that revisiting Nationally Determined Contributions, increasing energy efficiency, and decoupling GDP growth from greenhouse gas emissions are essential to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The future energy mix should include larger shares of renewable energy, hydrogen, fossil fuels (highly efficient with carbon capture), and nuclear energy to achieve energy security and decarbonize the economy of the region in the long term.

Keywords

• Commonwealth of Independent States
• carbon neutrality
• decarbonization
• climate change
• scenario analysis
• energy efficiency