اقتصاد باثبات (Jun 2024)

Investigating the effect of mutual shocks of the housing price index and the volume of housing transactions in the provinces of Iran: with the GVAR approach

  • Mehdi Shirafkan,
  • fateme seyedhashemi,
  • yaser sistani badoei

DOI
https://doi.org/10.22111/sedj.2024.47179.1411
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 5, no. 2
pp. 55 – 92

Abstract

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In recent years, housing prices have enjoyed a significant growth in some periods, therefore, the extreme fluctuations in housing prices and their economic and social effects have caused extensive losses to households and the performance of other economic sectors and caused disruptions. It has been in the provision of consumer housing. Therefore, housing market shocks are of particular importance. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of mutual shocks of the housing price index and the volume of housing transactions in the provinces of Iran during the years 2018-2019 using the Jever method. So that the results show that based on the reaction graphs of the housing index to housing index shocks and transaction volume, the housing price index of all provinces except seven provinces have reacted more to the shocks of Tehran's housing price index than to the shocks of Tehran's housing transaction volume. Based on the graphs of the reaction of transaction volume to the shocks of transaction volume and housing price index, the housing transaction volume index of all provinces, except for eleven provinces, reacted more to the shocks of Tehran's housing price index than to the shocks of Tehran's housing transaction volume. According to the variance analysis charts of the housing price index, most of the changes in the housing price index of thirteen provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing transaction volume index, and most of the changes in the housing price index in other provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing price index. According to the variance analysis diagrams of housing transaction volume, most of the changes in the housing transaction volume index of fourteen provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing transaction volume index, and most of the changes in the housing transaction volume in other provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing price index.

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