Regional event-based flood quantile estimation method for large climate projection ensembles

Abstract

Abstract Emerging large ensemble climate datasets produced by multiple general circulation models and their downscaling products challenge the limits of hydrodynamic models because of the immense data size. To overcome this new challenge and estimate the discharge quantiles corresponding to different return periods at all river sections in an entire region, this study proposes an event-based regional approach that uses a nationwide distributed rainfall–runoff model as well as large climate projection ensembles. This approach addresses the high computational burden associated with continuous simulations and solves the problem of conventional event-based simulations serving only a single outlet of a basin. For our analysis, we extracted 372 annual maximum 48 h rainfall events that cover the entirety of Shikoku Island and its eight major river basins. Peak discharges were estimated using a 150 m resolution rainfall–runoff–inundation model. These discharges were then screened using either the peak-over-threshold (POT) method or block maxima (BM) method, and frequency curves were subsequently constructed and evaluated. The primary reason for the necessity of POT or BM was to avoid interference from extraneous low discharges. The POT-based frequency curves showed good accuracy when using peak discharges in the range of the top 10–50%, and the results remain stable within this threshold range. The BM method, employing block sizes of 2–5 years, can generate relatively accurate frequency curves, but the choice of block size introduces significant variations in results among certain basins. Generally, the accuracy of results based on the POT method surpasses that of the BM method. Considering the accuracy, computational cost, and result stability, the POT method is preferred. The error introduced by the regional approach was acceptable with more than half of the relative root-mean-square errors remaining within 10% and basically all of the results are within 20%. The results of the regional approach exhibited good accuracy across climate scenarios and provided consistent information regarding future flood quantiles. This study serves as the foundation for high-resolution future flood risk assessment.

Keywords

• Large ensembles
• Peak over threshold
• Flood frequency analysis
• Climate change