Spatial and temporal analysis of human infection with the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in China and research on a risk assessment agent-based model

Abstract

Objectives: From 2013 to 2017, the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus frequently infected people in China, which seriously affected the public health of society. This study aimed to analyze the spatial characteristics of human infection with the H7N9 virus in China and assess the risk areas of the epidemic. Methods: Using kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse analysis, spatial and temporal scanning cluster analysis, and Pearson correlation analysis, the spatial characteristics and possible risk factors of the epidemic were studied. Meteorological factors, time (month), and environmental factors were combined to establish an epidemic risk assessment proxy model to assess the risk range of an epidemic. Results: The epidemic situation was significantly correlated with atmospheric pressure, temperature, and daily precipitation (P < 0.05), and there were six temporal and spatial clusters. The fitting accuracy of the epidemic risk assessment agent-based model for lower-risk, low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk was 0.795, 0.672, 0.853, 0.825, respectively. Conclusions: This H7N9 epidemic was found to have more outbreaks in winter and spring. It gradually spread to the inland areas of China. This model reflects the risk areas of human infection with the H7N9 virus.

Keywords

• Avian Influenza A H7N9
• Agent-based model
• Multilayer perceptron
• Avian influenza
• GIS