Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research (Mar 2015)
Water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change in North Nile Delta
Abstract
Determination of water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change is important for policy makers in Egypt. The objectives of this paper were to calculate (i) ETo and (ii) water requirements for wheat and maize crops grown in five governorates (Alexandria, Demiatte, Kafr El-Sheik, El-Dakahlia and El-Behira) located in North Nile Delta of Egypt under current climate and climate change. ECHAM5 climate model was used to develop A1B climate change scenario in 2020, 2030 and 2040. Monthly values of evapotranspiration (ETo) under the different scenarios in these governorates were calculated using Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S). Then, these values were regressed on ETo values previously calculated by Penman-Monteith equation (P-M) and linear regression (prediction equations were developed for each governorate). The predicted ETo values were compared to the values of ETo calculated by P-M equation and the deviations between them were very low (RMSE/obs=0.04-0.06 mm and R2 =0.96-0.99). Water requirements for wheat and maize were calculated using BISm model under current climate and in 2020, 2030 and 2040. The results showed that average annual ETo would increase by low percentage in 2020 and 2030. However, in 2040 the increase would reach 8%. Water requirements are expected to increase by 2-3% for wheat and by 10-15% for maize, which would result in reduction of the cultivated area. Thus, it is very important to revise and fix the production system of wheat and maize, in terms of the used cultivars, fertilizer and irrigation application to overcome the risk of climate change. Additional key words: Triticum spp; Zea mays; Penman-Monteith equation; Hargreaves-Samani equation; BISm model; ECHAM5 climate model; A1B climate change scenario. Abbreviations used: BISm (basic irrigation scheduling model); CCAFS (Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security); ETo (evapotranspiration); H-S (Hargreaves & Samani); Kc (crop coefficient); PI (percentage of increase); P-M (Penman Monteith); RMSE (root mean square error); WHC (water holding capacity). Citation: Ouda, S.; Noreldin, T.; Abd El-Latif, K. (2015). Water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change in North Nile Delta. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, Volume 13, Issue 1, e03-001, 10 pages. http://dx.doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2015131-6412. Received: 15 Jun 2014. Accepted: 02 Dec 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2015131-6412 Copyright © 2015 INIA. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC by 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Correspondence should be addressed to Samiha Ouda: [email protected]
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