جغرافیای اجتماعی شهری (Sep 2019)
Sustainable planning based on scenarios in the field of sustainable social tourism (Case Study: Meybod City)
Abstract
Objective: The rapid growth of the tourism industry due to the accelerated growth of revenue in this field in recent decades, and the constant change and uncertainty of high impact events in this sector, on the other hand, the necessity of using new methods of future research and Long and long-term planning has made it more visible. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to formulate future tourism scenarios and test the viability of sustainable social tourism strategies. Methods: In the present study, a combination of Delphi methods, PEST environmental scanning and interaction effects was used. Key parameters of sustainable social tourism were integrated and identified by key expert uncertainties using Interaction Analysis Questionnaire. Then, using the key uncertainties of the three scenarios, namely golden (optimistic), predictable (appropriate) and recessionary (pessimistic) future. Results: Unique historical background and attractions, specialized management, system planning and foreign policy and international relations of the most influential parameters and the world city of Zilo, competitive services and amenities, quality of land and air network network and promotion Technology in tourism has been identified as one of the most influential parameters, secondary lever exchange rate variations, market control of water and customs, and independent variable rituals. Capacity building for tourism in the age of communication and social cohesion is also considered as regulatory variables in sustainable social tourism. Conclusions: The results obtained from the analysis and evaluation of sustainable social tourism strategies indicate that some strategies are useful and robust in only one or two scenarios and weak in others. Therefore, it is necessary to consider multifaceted strategies that can respond to situations in different situations
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