R0 of COVID-19 and its impact on vaccination coverage: compared with previous outbreaks

Abstract

Background: Vaccination has been known to reduce morbidity and mortality of infectious diseases since the emergence of the 1st vaccine in the 18th century. That’s why global efforts are directed toward finding a vaccine for COVID-19 in order to eliminate its threat. The current pandemic of COVID-19 has changed the world affecting all fields significantly as a result of the preventive measures including locking down, social distancing, obligatory mask wearing, stopping flights, etc. The medical field is clearly the most significantly affected starting from altering most of the research efforts toward the new virus passing through the inadequate number of physicians as well as unavailable intensive care unit (ICU) beds. In order to break the restricted preventive measures, we need to minimize the newly infected cases which can be achieved by reaching adequate herd immunity. Moreover, calculating the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is crucial to estimate the herd immunity threshold (Ic). Methods: In this review, we searched PubMed for studies that mentioned the R0 of COVID_19, SARS, and MERS as well as measles, Zika and dengue virus to calculate the herd immunity threshold and the minimal vaccination coverage. Results: The value of R0 could vary for the same disease and consequently the herd immunity threshold as well as the vaccination coverage. The R0 of COVID-19 ranged widely through various articles from 1.4 to 6.68. As a result, the herd immunity threshold would range from 28.57% to 85.03%. However, the vaccination coverage depends also on the effectiveness of the vaccine which is still unknown. Conclusion: The calculations of vaccination coverage include many variables such as the R0 of the disease, Ic that depends on that value as well as sensitivity and specificity of the vaccine itself.

Keywords

• basic reproduction number
• herd immunity
• vaccination coverage
• covid-19