Forecasting monthly wind speed for Udaipur region

Abstract

Stochastic modelling for mean monthly wind speed of Udaipur (Rajasthan) was done using 26 years (1978–2003) data. The performed statistical tests indicated that the series of the monthly wind speed data is trend free. The periodic component can be represented by third harmonic expression. The stochastic components of the mean monthly wind speed follow fourth order Markov model. The correlation coefficient between generated and measured mean monthly wind speed series was 0.9995 and found to be highly significant 1 per cent level. The standard error (5.57 mm) is quite low. The regression equation is very near to 1:1 line. Therefore, developed model can be used for future prediction of monthly wind speed at Udaipur.

Keywords

• Stochastic
• Auto correlation function
• Auto regression
• Wind speed