Investigating the Causes of Non-realization of Project Prediction and Proposal of a New Prediction Framework

Abstract

The main goal of the paper is to identify the causes of non-realization of project prediction and to propose a new framework for project prediction. A secondary goal is to explain why the approaches to project prediction used currently do not provide satisfactory results. The research was realised in the form of qualitative research using semi-structured interviews. The findings reveal that the main causes of non-realization of project prediction are follows: there is no methodology that could be practically used; simplified approaches to project prediction usually have low reliability for which reason they are generally unusable; suitable input data and information for project prediction are not available. The main contribution made by the paper is the identification of causes of non-realization of project prediction and the proposal of a new framework for project prediction that respects changing conditions during the lifecycle of the project and changes in the way of thinking in project prediction. A prerequisite for its application is a functioning system of knowledge management in projects, including the realization of post-project analysis.

Keywords

• project management
• knowledge management
• project prediction
• finite automata
• markov chains