A dynamical system model to analyze the low carbon transition in energy-economic system

Abstract

In this study, we develop a dynamic system model that exhibits only one stable solution (sink) to analyze the impact of various factors on low-carbon transition, including policy implications, energy consumption, and energy capacity. Our aim is to provide policy recommendations based on the simulation results of the model, which reproduces five representative scenarios of distributed energy systems. We also compare our simulation results with those obtained from a set of agent-based models. Our analysis shows that the most effective way to achieve a low-carbon transition is by combining two approaches: limiting the use of high-carbon energy sources through certain market rules and reducing energy consumption. We further obtain different paths of low-carbon transition based on phase diagrams that do not harm the economy. For developed countries, the most feasible approach is to directly increase the market regulation ratio. For countries or regions with middle-level technical and energy conditions and relatively high energy consumption, such as some Eastern European countries, reducing energy consumption and then implementing low-carbon energy incentives policy is the best strategy. Finally, for countries or regions with lower technical and energy conditions, such as African countries, the main task is to improve energy capacity to increase the possibility of a low-carbon transition.

Keywords

• Low-carbon transition
• Dynamical system model
• Agent-based simulation
• Energy policy
• Phase diagram
• Energy-economic system