Short-term prediction method of oblique sounding ionosphere MUF based on robust Kalman filter

Abstract

To improve the low accuracy of ionospheric frequency forecasting, poor HF communication connectivity, and the severe impact of observational outliers in engineering on forecast accuracy, a short-term prediction method for oblique detection ionospheric MUF based on robust Kalman filtering was proposed.By studying the variation law of the measured MUF data and the causes as well as characteristics of observation errors, and exploiting the ionospheric reference model as a priori information, the state estimation equation of the Kalman filter model was improved.The cost function mechanism was introduced to realize the measurement update of the forecast state through Huber-M estimation, which reduced the influence of the observation outliers on the forecast results and improves the robustness of the proposed method.The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively suppress the adverse effects caused by the observation outliers and has good robustness and stability.

Keywords

• HF communication;ionosphere detection;frequency prediction;Kalman filter;M-estimation