PLOS Global Public Health (Jan 2023)

Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

  • Stacie Loisate,
  • Simon Mutembo,
  • Rohan Arambepola,
  • Kabondo Makungo,
  • Elliot N Kabalo,
  • Nyambe B Sinyange,
  • Nathan Kapata,
  • Mazyanga Liwewe,
  • Andrew Silumezi,
  • Gershom Chongwe,
  • Natalya Kostandova,
  • Shaun Truelove,
  • Amy Wesolowski

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000892
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 3, no. 10
p. e0000892

Abstract

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The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school closures. Given the importance of human mobility in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there have been an increase in analyses of mobility data to understand the COVID-19 pandemic to date. However, despite an abundance of these analyses, few have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we use mobile phone calling data to provide a spatially refined analysis of sub-national human mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020-July 2021 in Zambia using transmission and mobility models. Overall, among highly trafficked intra-province routes, mobility decreased up to 52% during the time of the strictest NPIs (March-May 2020) compared to baseline. However, despite dips in mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 cases, mobility returned to baseline levels and did not drop again suggesting COVID-19 cases did not influence mobility in subsequent waves.