Time Trend in SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity, Surveillance Detection- and Infection Fatality Ratio until Spring 2021 in the Tirschenreuth County—Results from a Population-Based Longitudinal Study in Germany
Sebastian Einhauser,
David Peterhoff,
Stephanie Beileke,
Felix Günther,
Hans-Helmut Niller,
Philipp Steininger,
Antje Knöll,
Klaus Korn,
Melanie Berr,
Anja Schütz,
Simon Wiegrebe,
Klaus J. Stark,
André Gessner,
Ralph Burkhardt,
Michael Kabesch,
Holger Schedl,
Helmut Küchenhoff,
Annette B. Pfahlberg,
Iris M. Heid,
Olaf Gefeller,
Klaus Überla,
Ralf Wagner
Affiliations
Sebastian Einhauser
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
David Peterhoff
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Stephanie Beileke
Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Felix Günther
Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 6, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Hans-Helmut Niller
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Philipp Steininger
Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Antje Knöll
Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Klaus Korn
Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Melanie Berr
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Anja Schütz
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Simon Wiegrebe
Department of Genetic Epidemiology, University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Klaus J. Stark
Department of Genetic Epidemiology, University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
André Gessner
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Ralph Burkhardt
Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Hospital Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Michael Kabesch
University Children’s Hospital Regensburg (KUNO) at the Hospital St. Hedwig of the Order of St. John, University of Regensburg, Steinmetzstraße 1-3, 93049 Regensburg, Germany
Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, 80539 Munich, Germany
Annette B. Pfahlberg
Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Waldstr. 6, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Iris M. Heid
Department of Genetic Epidemiology, University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Olaf Gefeller
Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Waldstr. 6, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Klaus Überla
Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Ralf Wagner
Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
Herein, we provide results from a prospective population-based longitudinal follow-up (FU) SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance study in Tirschenreuth, the county which was hit hardest in Germany in spring 2020 and early 2021. Of 4203 individuals aged 14 years or older enrolled at baseline (BL, June 2020), 3546 participated at FU1 (November 2020) and 3391 at FU2 (April 2021). Key metrics comprising standardized seroprevalence, surveillance detection ratio (SDR), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and success of the vaccination campaign were derived using the Roche N- and S-Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 test together with a self-administered questionnaire. N-seropositivity at BL was 9.2% (1st wave). While we observed a low new seropositivity between BL and FU1 (0.9%), the combined 2nd and 3rd wave accounted for 6.1% new N-seropositives between FU1 and FU2 (ever seropositives at FU2: 15.4%). The SDR decreased from 5.4 (BL) to 1.1 (FU2) highlighting the success of massively increased testing in the population. The IFR based on a combination of serology and registration data resulted in 3.3% between November 2020 and April 2021 compared to 2.3% until June 2020. Although IFRs were consistently higher at FU2 compared to BL across age-groups, highest among individuals aged 70+ (18.3% versus 10.7%, respectively), observed differences were within statistical uncertainty bounds. While municipalities with senior care homes showed a higher IFR at BL (3.0% with senior care home vs. 0.7% w/o), this effect diminished at FU2 (3.4% vs. 2.9%). In April 2021 (FU2), vaccination rate in the elderly was high (>77.4%, age-group 80+).
