Prediction in social sciences

Abstract

Considerable interest has been shown over recent decades in the application of quantitative methods in social sciences. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the ability to make predictions in social sciences with a focus on economics. Quantification of social and economic phenomena from the start of application had a lot of supporters but even more opponents, mathematics and methodological knowledge have passed the test of time and have lost none of their importance to the present day. The paper concludes that, forecasts may more desirable for many reasons. Namely, a better and more complete understanding of future trends and their effects will improve theories and models in economics and other social sciences. These improvements will greatly benefit those who explicitly seek to create a "ready society."

Keywords

• forecasting
• economic theory
• social sciences
• economics