Guan'gai paishui xuebao (Sep 2022)

Effects of Climate Change on Seed Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Cotton in Arid Regions: A Simulation Study

  • DONG Haibo,
  • CHEN Xiaoping,
  • FENG Shaoyuan,
  • ZHANG Youliang,
  • WU Hao

DOI
https://doi.org/10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022095
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 41, no. 9
pp. 23 – 32

Abstract

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【Objective】 One challenge facing agricultural production in many countries is the potential influence of global warming. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the potential impact of climate change on cotton production in arid regions in north China. 【Method】 The study was based on numerical simulation. The root zone water quality model (RZWQM2) was calibrated using data measured in 2018 from cotton fields at Qira Oasis in Xinjiang. The validated model was then used to analyze the effect of climate change (1960—2019) on growth, yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) of the cotton. The relationship between climate factors and cotton yield was analyzed using correlation methods. 【Result】 Comparison with measured data shows that the RZWQM2 is accurate to simulate change in water content in the soil profile except in the depth of 0.15~0.25 m. It also adequately predicts the cotton growth and yield, with the average consistency index > 0.75. The simulation results show that the emergence, flowering, cracked B1 and maturity stage of the cotton were delayed approximately by 1.1, 2.1, 3.5 and 3.5 d per decade, respectively, from 1960—2019 due to temperature rise. The simulated seed yield and IWUE of the cotton decreased by 45.95 kg/hm2 and 0.13 kg/(mm·hm2) per decade, respectively, from 1990—2019. Correlation analysis reveals that air temperature and solar radiation affect cotton growth most significantly. The minimum temperature is the dominant determinant of cotton growth, while the maximum temperature has a negative effect on cotton yield. Among others, solar radiation is the most important determinant of cotton yield. 【Conclusion】 Using the calibrated numerical model, we analyze the potential impact of climate change and different meteorological factors on growth and yield of cotton in arid regions in north China. The results provide baseline to understand how cotton production will change with climate change in the Oasis regions in Xinjiang.

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