Communications Medicine (Nov 2021)

Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant

  • Renato Mendes Coutinho,
  • Flavia Maria Darcie Marquitti,
  • Leonardo Souto Ferreira,
  • Marcelo Eduardo Borges,
  • Rafael Lopes Paixão da Silva,
  • Otavio Canton,
  • Tatiana P. Portella,
  • Silas Poloni,
  • Caroline Franco,
  • Mateusz M. Plucinski,
  • Fernanda C. Lessa,
  • Antônio Augusto Moura da Silva,
  • Roberto Andre Kraenkel,
  • Maria Amélia de Sousa Mascena Veras,
  • Paulo Inácio Prado

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-021-00048-6
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 1, no. 1
pp. 1 – 8

Abstract

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Coutinho et al. use genomic and epidemiological data from Manaus, Brazil, to estimate the transmissibility and potential for reinfection with the SARS-CoV-2 variant-of-concern P.1 (gamma). Using mathematical modelling, the authors estimate that P.1 is 2.6 times more transmissible than previous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in Manaus and underlies a large proportion of reinfections in Manaus.