Ecological Indicators (Oct 2023)
Ecological network-based food web dynamic model provides an aquatic population restoration strategy
Abstract
Aquatic ecosystem restoration is a crucial aspect of ecological management. However, current research tends to concentrate on single factors, such as water quality or biodiversity, rather than ecological restoration strategies based on the characteristics of an ecological network system. Due to the large number of parameters to be considered, the latter approach presents still full of challenges in practical implementation. This study introduces a food web dynamic model that can guide and facilitate aquatic ecological network restoration. The model calculates the network-based interaction relationships of species in the food web, predicting the changes in ecosystem structure and function. We test our food web model by conducting a case study. The food web considered 9 kinds of species nodes, 12 links, and 1 uncertain predator–prey interaction. Our model simulations presented a strong correlation with the measured data (R2 = 0.837). We performed sensitivity analysis on 12 parameters and also conducted link prediction analysis, which revealed that there was no predator–prey relationship between species A and N (A + N = 0). By comparing population dynamics under 3 conditions, we determined that the mass reproduction of nonnative species and the population decline of native species were both related to indirect food web interactions. Finally, we comprised 27 scenarios, including fishing and stock enhancement approaches, to predict the potential restoration effects. The results showed that the fishing approach was more effective in removing alien species when the fishing frequency was shorter. It was also found that selecting catches and releasing native or endangered species back into the environment (F4, F5, F6, and F12) was necessary. On the other hand, the stock enhancement approach was concluded to be effective in increasing the number of native species as long as the frequency of enhancement was high (per 1 year, S1, S2, and S3). However, it was found to be challenging to rely on this approach to reduce the population of nonnative species. This research will enhance the previous studies in terms of (a) including whole species interactions in the ecological network; (b) considering the influence of abiotic factors, such as water quality, terrigenous carrying capacity, shoreline substrate, and hydrological connection in our model; and (c) coupling significant parameters in ecological restoration practices. This research will provide a valuable tool for managing aquatic ecological networks and decision-making suggestions for determining restoration schemes in complex aquatic food webs.
