Forecast of Current and Future Distributions of <i>Corythucha marmorata</i> (Uhler) under Climate Change in China

Abstract

Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) emerged as an invasive pest in China around 2010, posing a significant threat to plants within the Asteraceae family. Employing the MaxEnt model, this study endeavors to anticipate the potential geographic distribution of Corythucha marmorata amid present and forthcoming climatic conditions, utilizing a dataset of 60 distributional occurrences alongside environmental parameters. The results revealed that presently, suitable regions span from 18–47° N to 103–128° E, with pronounced suitability concentrated notably in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Sichuan. Projections suggested a general expansion of suitable habitats, albeit with exceptions noted in SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios in the 2050s and SSP5–8.5 in the 2070s. The potential suitability of areas for Corythucha marmorata was influenced by major factors such as precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (bio10), mean temperature in the wettest quarter (bio8), and annual precipitation (bio12). Notably, temperature and precipitation emerge as primary determinants affecting both current and future ranges. In comparison with the current distributional area, there was a trend towards increasing the potentially suitable areas in the future. Moreover, there was a greater risk of spreading to the north of China in the future. This study serves as a pivotal resource for guiding future endeavors in monitoring, early detection, and preventative management strategies targeting Corythucha marmorata.

Keywords

• MaxEnt model
• climate change
• environmental variables
• potential suitable area
• biological invasions