Prior beliefs and the interpretation of scientific results

Abstract

How do prior beliefs affect the interpretation of scientific results? I discuss a hypothetical scenario where researchers publish results that could either support a theory they believe in, or refute that theory, and ask if the two instances carry the same weight. More colloquially, I ask if we should overweigh scientific results supporting a given theory and reported by a researcher, or a team, that initially did not support that theory. I illustrate the challenge using two examples from psychology: evidence accumulation models, and extra sensory perception.

Keywords

• metascience
• research methods
• credibility
• transparency
• replication
• real-time procedures