Risk assessment of drought in Yun-Gui-Guang of China jointly using the Standardized Precipitation Index and vulnerability curves

Abstract

Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world and causes great economic losses in China every year, especially in its southwest region. Yet, few studies have reported the quantitative comprehensive risk of drought in the Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi provinces of China. Taking these three provinces as the study area, we obtained annual precipitation, disaster loss, and agricultural planting data during 1964–2013. Following an optimal estimation of annual precipitation by the Bayesian maximum entropy method, we mapped the annual Standardized Precipitation Index. Based on the theory of information diffusion and exceeding probability, the hazard of drought was evaluated. We also fit the vulnerability curves using the drought loss data. As a basis, we constructed a multiplicative formula to calculate the comprehensive risk of drought, which integrates the hazard and the vulnerability and produces drought loss rate (DLR) maps. We found that the DLR caused by mild drought was about 3%, moderate drought 10%, severe drought 25%, and extreme drought 50%. We also created a risk zoning map to provide practical information, such as a scientific basis for optimization of regional allocation of resources for drought preparedness and response.

Keywords

• Drought
• risk assessment
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• information diffusion
• vulnerability curve