Spatial change characteristics and smart shrinkage strategies in resource-exhausted cities: A case study of Zaozhuang City

Abstract

[Objective] In some resource-based cities in China, population shrinkage has already occurred, and the trend is more pronounced and distinctive in resource-exhausted cities. Clarifying its spatial change characteristics will be more conducive to useful exploration and theoretical support for the optimization of land space and the rational allocation of resources in resource-based cities. [Methods] This study took Zaozhuang City, the first prefecture-level resource-exhausted city in the eastern region of China, as a typical case. Based on the population, industry, and spatial data from different time periods, using ArcGIS spatial metrics and statistical analysis methods, taking the expansion of urban built-up areas in typical years as a basis, and using indicators such as urbanization intensity, center of gravity, and compactness, this study analyzed the characteristics of urban spatial change in the city from 1980 to 2020 and proposed smart shrinkage strategies based on the findings. [Results] The study found that: (1) The urban spatial expansion went through several phases, which experienced a process of steady growth, sharp increase and rapid decline. (2) The city’s spatial structure has evolved from the single center model of “city-mine integration” in the early days of the People’s Republic of China to the cluster model of “one main center and one sub-center, driven by two poles”, and the spatial structure is more dispersed and constrained by resources. The intensity of urban land use was not high, the urban gravity center generally showed a trend of moving westward and northward, the compactness of the built-up areas was gradually decreasing, and the change of urban spatial structure was closely related to the development of industrial land. (3) The signs of urban space shrinkage in Zaozhuang City are obvious, with significant characteristics of developing into shrinking cities. Since the depletion of coal resources in 2009, the population growth rate has slowed significantly; in the past five years, the resident population has declined significantly, indicating a state of population shrinkage. Urban space expansion was only 10.74 km2 in 2010-2020. Urban shrinkage is very likely to occur in the future, based on the trend of spatial change. [Conclusion] Smart development should be the primary direction for resource-exhausted cities. In the future, the potential urban shrinkage issue can be addressed through optimized allocation and orderly withdrawal of industrial land, compact and intensive urban development, and the construction of urban green spaces and a green infrastructure network.

Keywords

• resource-exhausted cities|population shrinkage|spatial change|smart shrinkage strategy|zaozhuang city