Significant winter Atlantic Niño effect on ENSO and its future projection

Abstract

Abstract The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of the winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. Through analysis of observational reanalysis data since the mid-twentieth century, here we found that the winter Atlantic Niño significantly influences the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surpassing the impact of summer Atlantic Niño, with a longer lead time. This effect is reasonably captured in the CMIP6 Historical simulations from a multi-model ensemble perspective. Further analysis of the global warming scenario projects that the influence of winter Atlantic Niño on ENSO will persist into the future, in contrast to the reduced impact of summer Atlantic Niño. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of further investigating the winter Atlantic Niño to gain a comprehensive understanding of trans-basin interactions and their future changes.